ABSTRACT
670Bt hybrids were commercially released in India in 2002 and within ten years time their area increased to 10.4 m ha, occupying over 90% of the cotton growing area. Bt hybrids along with associated agro-techniques propelled India to become the second largest producer (390.9 lakh bales), consumer (306 lakh bales) and the largest exporter (118 lakh bales) of raw cotton in 2013. The land use changes accompanying Bt-cotton revolution is the unprecedented increase in cotton acreage from 7.8 m ha in 2002 to 12.6 m ha in 2014. Other structural changes include the spread of intra-hirsutum hybrids to 92% in 2012, a concomitant decline in the area of Diploid and Egyptian cotton from 31% to 3%. This caused a glut of long staple cotton and a shortage of both short staple cotton and extra long staple cotton. The gain in area under cotton in the post-Bt era is at the expense of pulses, oilseeds and coarse cereals that are vital for our food security. The attractive price of cotton and the relatively lower risks with Bt cotton encourage farmers to cultivate hybrid cotton even in soils and climates that are not ideal for cotton. Other consequences include the emergence of a vibrant private sector seed industry, switch over to mono/sole cotton system; re-emergence of cotton leaf curl virus disease in north India, resurgence of secondary pests, etc. Consequently, the average productivity has plateaued between 500 and 560 kg lint/ha during the last five years but the production costs have escalated. Decrease in raw cotton exports that lead to a huge surplus in the national cotton stocks and the continued supply glut is unlikely to push cotton prices 671upwards in the near future. Therefore, future land use policies including cotton policy need to be thoughtfully formulated keeping in view the past and emerging trends.
