ABSTRACT
Reserves are dynamic concepts due to changes in technology, human cognitive abilities, exploration, exploitation capacity, and the economic capacity of a specific period[3]. Loury and some other scholars[4-8] used the geometric Brownian motion to describe the uncertainty of reserves in the beginning. Epaulard[9] summarized all kinds of factors and built a model of random fluctuation reserves based on the geometric Brownian motion. In recent years, Chinese scholars in related fields had also carried out some corresponding research work. K. Zhang[10-11] compared the oil reserves in different regions in recent decades, analyzed the reasons for changes, and forecasted their development trend. P.P. Shen[12] and Z.Y. Zhou[13] combined mathematical models with some other predicted data, and then performed a prediction of the growth trend of China's proven oil reserves in recent years. Y.X. Li[14] systematically analyzed the factors affecting
1 INTRODUCTION
China is a big consumer of oil resources, and so accurately grasping the fluctuation of oil reserves can ensure China’s energy supply security. Since its reform and opening, with rapid development of China’s oil industry, explored reserves have been growing. The production of crude oil has increased steadily. Both these achievements have been making significant contributions to the economic and social development[1]. At the same time, demand and consumption of oil has also shown strong growth. According to the latest release of “Domestic and International Oil and Gas Industry Development Report 2014”[2], China’s apparent oil consumption (sum of production and net imports) has reached more than 518 million tons and its net imports are about 308 million tons. The oil external dependence has reached 59.5%, which far exceeds the internationally recognized warning line. Therefore, solving the issue of oil supply security in China is an urgent requirement because of the increasingly prominent contradiction between supply and demand and an increasingly complex geopolitical situation. However, to identify the root of the solution to this problem, we must clarify the long-term fluctuation of China's oil reserves, analyze the dynamic changes in growing potential oil resources, and then evaluate the oil resources and support capabilities quantitatively. In the new situation and new background, using an appropri-
oil and gas reserves and production growth trends in China and then summarized them as the following three aspects: geology, theory technology, and demand and prices in oil and gas.
