ABSTRACT
For the discussion of optimization of planning of civil infrastructure maintenance, efficiency has been a main issue. However, risk management such as prevention of severe accidents is also important and it requires consideration of tail risk. We also paid attention to the effect of the maintenance behavior, because the activity to curtail the risk should affect the value of tail risk. We developed a mathematical model to simulate probabilistic characteristics of risk and its temporal variation due to the deterioration of structures and the maintenance activities. Then a scheme of risk quantification based on risk measures, VaR and CVaR, is discussed. Also presented is a method to apply such risk measures to dynamic problems, which are accompanied by decision making about maintenance policy. We presented that a scheme called iterated risk measures is applicable for evaluation of maintenance strategy of infrastructure.
