ABSTRACT
To improve the accuracy of precipitation in the forecast period, according to the hourly precipitation, the flow data of the flood season during the period of 2006–2008, and the corresponding 0–60 h hourly AREM forecasting precipitation provided by the Institute of Heavy Rain (IHR) in WuHan, in this paper, we took the Zhanghe reservoir basin in Hubei Province as the research object, introduced the Bayesian probabilistic model to correct precipitation forecasted by the AREM model, and analyzed the revised and unrevised precipitation. Then, both forecasting precipitations of the AREM model were inputted into the Xin’An-jiang hydrology flood forecast model. The results showed that the revised forecasting precipitation had the higher accuracy than the unrevised forecasting precipitation, and the root mean square error was reduced by not more than 10%. The average flood deterministic coefficient increases by 10.66%, and the average relative error of peak reduces by 3.05% in the verification period. It improved the precision of the flood forecast to some extent.
