ABSTRACT
Some of the most immediate impacts of climate change are observed in agriculture: changes in climate trigger changes in cultivation patterns, choice of crop varieties, and even types of crops grown in an a particular area. Unfortunately, some of the adaptive decisions made by farmers include switching to growing illicit crops, such as opium poppy, which represents a threat for public safety in Mexico. The main objective of this chapter is to identify principal elements that influence the production of illicit crops and, specifically, quantify the effects of climate. We analyzed 18 years of historical temperature and rain data in poppy eradicated areas in Mexico along with geographic, sociodemographic characteristics, and state efforts for poppy eradication in those areas. We applied an index that relates poppy's production, organized crime, and climate variations. Our multivariate approach shows relevance of climate variables and their relative contribution to understanding the dynamics of illicit crops.
