ABSTRACT
Against the backdrop of increased climate change importance, this chapter statistically examines the Atlantic basin tropical cyclone record for discontinuities (changepoints). The identified shifts in the record can be attributed to advancements in measuring technology, or to climate changes with long-term effects. Our methods are based on a minimum description length (MDL) likelihood penalization approach. A Poisson model is used to describe counts of tropical cyclones and hurricanes. A Gaussian time series model for accumulated cyclone energy (ACE), a quantity sensitive to both changes in the strength of storms and their frequency, is also developed. All analyses find that the Atlantic Basin has been in a record high period of activity since 1995. Several earlier discontinuities, which may be attributed to changes in monitoring techniques, are also found. Lastly, the ACE series is found to exhibit a pronounced multi-decadal cycle, although its current phase is the most active on record.
