Probabilistic Projections of High-Tide Flooding for the State of Maryland in the Twenty-First Century

Probabilistic sea level rise projections are used to drive a regional ocean model to project high tide flooding and coastal inundation around Chesapeake Bay, with a focus on the State of Maryland. In 2050, there is 50% probability that the total inundated areas exceed 1,300 km². The likely range for the flooded areas lies between 1,180 and 1,420 km². In 2100, the projected inundated areas depend critically on the climate change scenario. Under the median projection of RCP 4.5/8.5, a total of 1,757/1,912 km² are projected to be flooded. The likely range lies between 1,489/1,642 and 2,012/2,241 km² under RCP 4.5/8.5. The rural and urban areas show different responses to sea level rise, due to differences in land topography. Over the Dorchester County, the inundated areas show minor differences between different climate change scenarios and experience moderate gains in 2100 over 2050. However, the average inundation depth is 70–100% higher in 2100 than in 2050. In comparison, inundated areas in Annapolis are projected to expand 10-30 times from 2050 to 2100. In Baltimore, no extensive tidal flooding is projected beyond the immediate neighborhood of the Inner Harbor except under the higher end projections of sea level rise for 2100.