ABSTRACT
Uncertainty in risk assessment refers to the lack of definiteness that exists about the procedures, quantities, and data used and, therefore, to the lack of sureness about the resulting values and conclusions. Uncertainties exist in risk assessments whether or not they are acknowledged, incorporated into the analysis, or used by the risk manager in decision making. Ignoring or mishandling uncertainty may paralyze decision makers or generate controversy in risk assessment and management. Instead, uncertainty can be explicitly modeled, discussed, and incorporated into decision making through a quantitative uncertainty analysis, resulting in decisions that are more thorough and, hopefully, less contentious.
