Risk management measuremnt methodology: Practical proceducres and approaches for risk assessment and prediction

We reconcile the apparent randomly observed outcomes with the systematic effect of learning. We describe the inherent unpredictability (and inevitability) of accidents and the large contribution due to unforeseen human errors. We adopt and adapt the principles and methods of statistical physics to the observation and prediction of risk, accidents and the contribution of human error. The idea here is to find the simplest physical theory and systematically obtain the most useful results, validated against data.