ABSTRACT
There is well worked methodology of determination of manoeuvring areas for ships as the two dimensional areas with given probability of ships presence inside them. The models presently used provide well assessment in relatively short waterway discrete sections but the assessment of total accident probability is not yet well worked out. The assessment made by these models offer only partially satisfactory results [Gucma 2005] due to model limitations. With use of navigational process concept themodel of total probability of accident during whole ships voyage is proposed. The use of such model is determined by availability of sufficient amount of data from either simulations or real experiments.
