ABSTRACT
Risk analysis methods are used to support decisionmaking for complex systems whenever a risk assessment is needed (USNRC, 1983). These methods are well-defined and routinely employed in the nuclear, aeronautics and chemical industries (USNRC, 1998; Haimes, 2004; Jaynes, 2003). This paper will describe experiences gained and lessons learnt from four applications: (i) use of PRA-like methods combined with decision theory and energy technology insights in order to deal with the complex issue of SES (Security of Energy Supply); (ii) use of PRA for new applications in the nuclear field (PRA-Nuc); (iii) use of PRA for modelling risks in non-nuclear energy systems, with special reference to hydrogen energy chains and (iv) use of PRA for modelling risks in photovoltaic energy production. An important experience gained in this research is the discovery that the problems encountered in the use of this approach in nuclear and non-nuclear applications have common problems and solutions that can be grouped into a set of paradigms, which are presented below.
