ABSTRACT
This paper presents a multi-disciplinary approach aimed at assessing groundwater nitrate in a transboundary aquifer lying between Germany and France. Developed as part of the MONIT EU-InterReg project, the methodology consists of integrating different models representing economical, physical, chemical and hydrogeological processes as well as their interactions. The aim of this paper is to present the work of the economic working group who developed a model aimed at representing the evolution of agricultural land by modelling the farm production choices and their practices. Simulations are run at a 2015 time horizon to assess the impact of three contrasting scenarios (“baseline scenario”, and two contrasted scenarios derived from the International Panel Climate Change work). The scenarios include various assumptions on several driving forces such as the CAP reform, the risk of corn rootworm proliferation, energy prices, water policy, and the development of biofuels. Results suggest that the evolution of cropping patterns will be significant between now and 2015, and this will have consequences on both nitrate leaching and the implementation of groundwater protection measures. The long-term consequences of nitrate contamination of groundwater are also simulated using the chain of models described in the paper.
