ABSTRACT

The probability distribution of slope hazard in Thailand was made by a model developed by multiple logistic regression analysis. Relative relief, hydraulic gradient due to extreme rainfall and geological features were used as variables in this model. The probability distribution is composed by 5 km × 5 km cells that can reflect the risk management of slope failure and global climate changes. Hazard area was extracted according to the probability of quantitative risk. In summary, our findings are: 1) Mountain-ringed region in the northern part of Thailand has high risk of slope hazard. 2) Identification of high risk areas could be more clarified by the use of extreme rainfall in comparison with past risk map of slope failure in Thailand. 3) Relative relief is the more predominant factor of slope failure in Thailand than hydraulic gradient. 4) Areas prone to possible changes in terms of the probability of occurrence of extreme rainfall were revealed.