ABSTRACT
Simulation methods are nowadays the most common approach to the navigational safety assessment. The present-day systems, due to their complexity, require construction of dedicated and suitably chosen methods. Generalized empirical method, using the Monte Carlo simulation and theory of ships traffic flows gives the most satisfactory results in this respect (Gucma, 2005). In most cases, the intensity of traffic can be described by a Poisson distribution (Gucma, 2004). However, if the movement of ships takes place in a predetermined schedule Poisson distribution cannot be used. The goal of this paper is to present developed model of the time differences between actual departures and the schedule of sea ferries. Developed model will allow to simulate scheduled traffic. To achieve the assumed goal the actual differences between time of departure and schedule of sea ferries in the ĝwinoujĞcie Harbour were measured. Next the statistical analysis of the results was performed and the theoretical distribution was fitted, this allows to implement the built model to a microscopic model of traffic.
