ABSTRACT
Oil has been and continues to be the dominant energy source, because of its critical role in transportation and industrial end-use sectors. The projection of Total energy consumption may be based on the basis of economic growth and price. Consumption of all fuels is increasing, but not at the same rate (Fig. 4.2.1). The use of liquid fuels is projected to increase at a higher rate than others. Increased urbanization and personal incomes, particularly in countries like China and India, have led to increase in air travel
and also increase in the number of cars (In India, even middle class families can afford Tata’s Nano car, which costs about USD 2,200). Transportation of fright by trucks, by air and marine vessels is increasing. Oil and natural gas were produced by the burial and transformation of biomass
over the last 200 million years. The transformation of kerogen to hydrocarbons (catagenesis) is a complex process which is largely dependent on the way kerogen is “cooked’’ (based on the temperature and duration of heating which are related to thermal gradient, depth of burial and age of sediments). The proven oil reserves (in thousand million barrels) at the end of 2007 in the six
regions of the world (Source: BP, 2008) and the percent of global reserves, are as follows:
Hydrocarbon that could Depth (km) be expected Maturity of phase
0-2 Gas Immature (under-cooked) 2-4 Oil Mature (well-cooked) 3-7 Gas Over-cooked
Asia – Pacific: 40.8 (3.2%), North America: 69.3 (5.5%); South and Central America: 111.2 (9.0%), Africa: 117.5 (9.4%); Europe and Eurasia: 143.7 (11.6%); Middle East: 755.3 (61.0%). Thus, Middle East holds more oil than the rest of the world put together. World oil production in Dec. 2007 has been 86 Mbd (million barrels/day). The US Geological Survey (USGS) made use of the geologic characteristics as the
primary criterion for the assessment of reserves. USGS prepared the most comprehensive assessment of oil resources in 96 countries (USGS, 2000). This assessment quantifies the resources of oil, gas and natural gas liquids (NGL) as they are known in 2000, but also have the potential to be added to the reserves within a 30-year time frame as a result of the exploration effort during 1995-2000. Masters et al. (1998) gave the resource estimates for parts of 128 geologic provinces in 96 countries (Fig. 4.2.2). The proven oil reserves by region and country, the share of the reserves via-vis the
global total, and R/P (Reserves to annual production ratio) are given in Table 4.2.1. Evidently, oil reserves are finite, and will be exhausted sooner or later. Hubbert
(1956) developed a tool (“Hubbert Curve’’) for forecasting future production of oil by estimating the likely peak in production in the case of any oil-producing region. According to this theory, known as Peak Oil Theory, the profile of annual production volumes in any oil-producing region, would be a bell-shaped curve (“Hubbert Curve’’) and the maximum production is reached when about 50% of the ultimate production volume has been extracted. When it was propounded, Hubbert’s view was widely criticized for being pessimistic, but when the time came, his theory proved to be correct, in the case of USA (Fig. 4.2.3).
