ABSTRACT
For this present work SNL has chosen to build a risk assessment tool for BLM with its underlying framework for encompassing conceptual models, data, and other elements, that provides a more centralized, traceable and transparent process for analysis of technical issues. This paper summarizes the full risk assessment report sent to BLM (Sobolik et al., 2011), which presents the risk assessment (RA) framework and methodology SNL developed using the gas migration problem to set up example conceptual models, parameter sets and computer models and as a foundation for future development of RA to support BLM resource development. This RA framework is based on the SNL’s previously successful development of such a methodology for WIPP. The framework is built upon a total systems approach encompassing the potash mines and oil and natural gas wellbores in the Delaware Basin, and utilizes site-specific geophysical data, as well as geomechanical and hydrological computational modeling. The tool described in this paper is in the first phase of RA development and shows the possibilities for development of a functioning RA tool that would grow to meet project needs over time.
