ABSTRACT
This chapter presents two techniques that have been successfully applied to power system planning and operational analysis as noted by the “Application of Probability Methods” subcommittee of the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Power Engineering Society. The two techniques are: Monte Carlo simulation and Analytical probability methods. Conventional, deterministic power flow studies are one of the most widely used analysis tools for both planning and operations. In Monte Carlo power flow studies, multiple power flow studies are run using different sets of input data. Multiple power flow studies can also be used to compute the variation of system bus voltages throughout the day, week, or year as the load varies. Stochastic power flow is another term that has been used for analytical probabilistic power flow. The Available Transfer Capability is determined by power flow studies subject to transmission system limits. These phenomena are nonlinear in behavior.
