ABSTRACT
We will report and discuss results of an effort to adapt country-level modeling techniques developed in DARPA’s Integrated Crisis Early Warning System (ICEWS) program to produce forecasts and analyses at a much more granular level, focusing on districts in Kandahar and Kunduz, Afghanistan. The challenge of this work in Afghanistan is not only to bridge theoretical models to operational needs at an appropriate level of granularity, but also to overcome modeling obstacles that are unique to Afghanistan, at least in comparison with the national models that were the focus of the ICEWS project. We will briefly describe our modeling methodology, including specific steps taken to account for the challenges listed above, before moving to a analysis of the results of our experiments. Findings and forecasts will be reported from baseline models of Kandahar and Kunduz provinces built with the most recent open-source data available as well as several “what-if” and “in light of” analyses that will explore counterfactual futures of Kandahar and Kunduz provinces associated with an ISAF drawdown, militia disarmament, and a string of political assassinations.
