ABSTRACT

Attribution involves comparison of observed changes in the variable of interest with expected changes due to external forcings and drivers. Atmospheric warming currently occurs at different spatial scales, including globally. It is unabated and unequivocal. Climate change attribution statements play a very important role in the assessments of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Attribution of climate change is an effort to scientifically explain the cause of changes observed recently in the Earth’s climate. Attribution studies to date have focused overwhelmingly on large-scale temperature changes, with continental and regional scale being of increasing interest. The growing emissions of greenhouse gases and the on-going change of the land surface affect, through the changing climate, many natural systems and almost every aspect of human life on Earth. There is considerable and understandable interest in detection and attribution of changes. Policy makers and the wider public want to know the detail of observed climate change and to understand why it happens.