ABSTRACT
Despite the focus of climate change often resting on shifts in air temperature, the most substantive risks revolve around changes in water availability and timing. Increased energy in the global climate system can easily change precipitation patterns, often abruptly and without preceding, marginal changes. Disasters stemming from such changes involve both droughts and fl oods, including loss of water availability from glaciers. The resultant impacts on health are highly signifi cant, and are also among the more reliable paths for assessing potential risks. The diffi culties stem from lack of available data on probabilities, and the tendency to underestimate risks for previously unfamiliar events. People also too often assume that risk impacts can only be measured vis-a-vis direct climate change effects, rather than through intermediary systems. This chapter explains how public health can be used in conjunction with complex scenarios and risk assessments for abrupt climate changes, including mapping techniques for cascading risks and pre-disaster monitoring of vulnerability. Epidemiological and risk methods can provide valuable lessons for dealing with uncertainty, especially when combined with more policy-directed scenario planning.
