ABSTRACT
The link between epidemiological studies and climate change assessments does not follow a simple model of translating predictable climate changes into health impacts. On the contrary, epidemiological methods have been used to help guide risk assessments of abrupt climate changes, or other risks that are both high-impact and yet contain unknown probabilities. The climate security assessments used in the US Department of Energy and US Department of Defense, were based upon methods originally developed to assess environmental health impacts in post-confl ict and post-disaster regions. The health assessments used methods of fi eld epidemiology to confront risks where no monitoring systems had been put into place, and where policy decisions had to be made without reliable information on what impacts were being experienced. For reasons detailed above, risk methods to address climate and water-related health impacts start from the same premise-that accurate predictions of environmental conditions cannot be used as a basis for analysis. Uncertainty must be acknowledged when it cannot be minimized.
