RISK FRAMEWORK-WARNING VERSUS PREDICTION
DOI link for RISK FRAMEWORK-WARNING VERSUS PREDICTION
RISK FRAMEWORK-WARNING VERSUS PREDICTION book
The Dept of Energy recognized that disparate impacts were diffi cult to predict, having not been historically grounded, and often a result of multiple variables that quickly compound complexity and uncertainty. Rather than climate affecting health through single pathways (e.g. direct heat-related risks), environmental changes would result in multiple, cascading risks that would impact different geographical regions and social networks in unique ways. Risk may often be the result of slow-onset disasters, where factors would change relatively slowly over periods of time, and then suddenly appear to overwhelm social or ecosystems as vulnerabilities were exposed. For example, changes in environmental factors may lead to slow eroding of social resilience to disease, which then breaks out in an epidemic where previously it had been controlled. Impacts may also be felt when acute changes occur, especially when IPCCtype projections led planners to assume that environmental changes were linear rather than nonlinear. While sea level rise tends to be fairly linear (with accelerated growth toward the end of the 21st century), and changes in sea temperature are physically diffi cult to shift rapidly, changes in air temperature or precipitation can be sudden and prolonged (Briggs 2009).