ABSTRACT
Annually, malaria kills between 0.7 to 2.7 million people with 70-80 percent of the cases being reported in Africa (Guerra et al. 2006; Patz and Olson 2006; WHO 2009). Next to diarrheal diseases, it is the single biggest killer of African children under the age of fi ve (Black et al. 2010). In endemic regions individuals in Africa are reported to have 0.3 and 1,000 infected mosquito bites per year (Snow et al. 2006). Climate change is expected to alter the number of people at risk (PAR) of malaria in Africa from 0.638 billion in 2005 to 0.731 billion by 2030 (Hay et al. 2006). Temperature and rainfall changes affect the habitat of the malaria vector, the Anopheles mosquito, making some locations more favorable, new locations suitable and will cause a contraction of transmission in others. Warmer temperatures, not exceeding physiological tolerances, will improve mosquito reproduction rates, reduce development time, increase feeding behavior, and boost pathogen replication within the mosquito (Hoshen and Morse, 2004 as quoted in Altizer et al. 2006; Costello et al. 2009). Precipitation will also affect the mosquito population as they rely on sources of stagnant freshwater for breeding (Tables 19.2 and 19.3). Both heavy rainfall and drought conditions could improve larval habitat. Prolonged drought creates stagnant pools in dried riverbeds and intense events make water sources more available. Intense events could also decrease vector population by fl ushing away breeding sites.
