Experimental results about the assessments of conditional rank correlations by experts: Example with air pollution estimates

Science-based models often involve substantial uncertainty that must be quantified in a defendable way. Shortage of empirical data inevitably requires input from expert judgment. How this uncertainty is best elicited can be critical to a decision process, as differences in efficacy and robustness of the elicitation methods can be substantial. When performed rigorously, expert elicitation and pooling of experts’ opinions can be powerful means for obtaining rational estimates of uncertainty.