ABSTRACT
Air traffic management belongs to the class of complex, hierarchical socio-technical systems. The hierarchy can be divided into four levels: current real-time air traffic control, traffic management in the daily cycle, realization of transportation tasks in half-year period, long-term development of the air traffic system. Ensuring the safety of flight operations is one of the main objectives of air traffic control (ATC) services. An important problem is to quantify the level of safety, both current and future— arising from current and planned control decisions. This paper presents a method for quantitative safety evaluation for the second level of the hierarchy—the process of managing traffic in a daily cycle. The concept of control sector capacity is commonly used this context—both in terms of area control (ACC) sectors and airport terminal areas (TMA). It is used as a basic tool in management of air traffic flows (ATFM). This paper proposes the use of the concept of ATC sector capacity, along with the actual volume of traffic as a measure of air traffic safety. In this paper the definition of air traffic sector capacity is presented. Mathematical models to determine the capacity are proposed, an example model for airport area is presented. Safety indicators based on analysis of the traffic volume and ATC sector capacity are also defined. A method and computer tool for quantitative evaluation of medium-term air traffic safety was elaborated. Brief presentation of results of simulation experiments based on the real air traffic in FIR Warsaw indicating the usefulness and effectiveness of the proposed method is shown.
