ABSTRACT
This paper describes the blueprint of a model for calculating the left-hand side of the bow-tie for chemical plants is described. The model is based on Non-Parametric Bayesian Belief Nets so that uncertainties are automatically included. Also, the procedure for constructing the elements for the model is described. The aim is to calculate LoC frequencies for entire chemical plants in a single straightforward modeling approach in a single model. It is demonstrated that only four principle design rules are required to construct the blueprint for a model that is flexible and straightforward to work with. It was also found that design process for the components of the model is traceable and reproducible. A structured working procedure was designed to meet those requirements. A numerical validation process will follow in the future.
