ABSTRACT
In this study, a new method combining Dynamic Process Simulation (DPS) and Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) is proposed for risk-based design. Operating conditions (pressure and temperature) are generally estimated by process simulation without considering realistic system behavior such as equipment failure and repair events. Although equipment failure and subsequent repair affect the pressure and temperature profile, it is difficult to apply these features directly in the process simulation because of the randomness of failure. Thus, in this study, to predict practical operation conditions, MCS is combined with DPS. MCS is employed to predict when and where failure of equipment and its subsequent repair occur and to describe a realistic lifetime scenario of the system operation. Combining MCS with DPS enables a description of realistic operating conditions and excessive conditions in accordance with failure and repair events. The excessive conditions provide risk-based information for use in design.
