ABSTRACT
Distributed Generation (DG) covers an increasing share of electrical energy production. A current issue in power system planning is to allow the connection of a maximum of DG units to the Medium Voltage grid, before a possible but expensive reinforcement of the infrastructure. The corresponding asset utilization maximization is achieved by considering the intermittent nature of DG and the possibility to curtail the production of some DG units in case of power flow congestion typically, while ensuring a satisfactory utilization factor to all producers. As numerous uncertainties affect DG and load, a probabilistic risk analysis at the power system planning level must be performed.
This paper presents a pragmatic methodology for a Transmission System Operator in order to estimate risk indices related to accepting to connect new DG units. A method based on a quasi-systematic search of the space of uncertainties is developed, addressing correlations while managing the computation time.
