ABSTRACT
The aim of the overall study is to develop an European gas transmission system reliability model to analyse simultaneously in one model two aspects of a gas transmission network, namely (i) capacity constraints of the pipelines, gas storages and other input sources and (ii) reliability of the network components. The model is needed to evaluate security of supply situation by analysing different supply disruption scenarios. Although vulnerability, reliability and risks of complex infrastructure 2178networks is currently studied by a growing number of researchers, comprehensive modelling of complex systems distributed in large geographical areas is a challenge. For modeling of capacity constraints of the gas transmission network graph theory approach is used. Moreover, in order to model reliability aspects of the gas transmission network, we use stochastic network representation, where each node and edge of the network can randomly fail. Monte-Carlo simulations are used to estimate probability of less than demanded volume of gas available in selected network nodes. The approach is applied on a test case of a gas transmission network and it is shown how capacity and reliability restrictions affect the overall network reliability
