ABSTRACT
Dengue has become a major public health concern. This disease often shows regular seasonal incidence patterns because of the sensitivity of dengue’s mosquito vector to climate. Changes in Sea Surface Temperature (SST) have a well-defined role as a climate driver of precipitation. We analyzed the importance of local climate as a factor in the inter-epidemic dynamic in the Eastern region of Northeast Brazil (ENEB), specifically in the Metropolitan Region of Recife (MRR). The precipitation in this region is mostly forced by the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) in the nearby Southwestern Atlantic Warm Pool (SAWP). We used standard statistical analyses, coupled with the wavelet method to establish the relationship between the SST anomalies measured in the SAWP and the Dengue Case Anomalies (DCA) reported in the MRR. We report a solid, multicomponent association between the SST and dengue incidence, which is non-stationary and only takes place during inter-epidemic periods. We hypothesize that the SST acts as a pacemaker, driving the temporal dynamics of dengue incidence in inter-epidemic periods.
