ABSTRACT
A method is developed to determine the uncertainty of system reliability which is estimated using Bayesian networks. The uncertainty of system reliability is calculated based on the estimated variance of component reliability estimates. The variance propagation technique is used to estimate the system reliability variance. Formulas are deduced to calculate the variance propagation in the basic model of Bayesian networks which constructs by two nodes. The uncertainty of reliability of a example system is calculated using the proposed method and the result is compared with results given existing method.
