ABSTRACT
ABSTRACT: With the new regulations in Turkey, companies have started to buy electricity from different suppliers in the market. Thus, from the perspective of the electricity providers demand forecasting has become a significant issue. Errors in electricity demand forecasting generate a considerable amount of risk. For electricity suppliers, assessment of this risk caused by the uncertainty has become an important issue. In this paper real world case study is given and Value-At-Risk (VAR) value is calculated due to load forecast errors. The ARIMA and Grey forecasting methods are used for predicting the electricity consumption.
