ABSTRACT
ABSTRACT: In this paper, a scenario-based risk assessment of paddy caused by flood in Huai River sub-basin of China was performed in the following 4 steps, (I) generation of scenarios, (II) simulation of scenarios, (III) consequence of scenarios and (IV) comprehension of scenarios. In the first step, rainfall Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) model was built to generate a set of rainfall scenarios in sub-basin by setting several typical return periods. In the second step, the flooding simulation was done based on distributed Rainfall-RunoffInundation (RRI) model to obtain inundation depth (m) and duration time (day). In the third step, grid-based flood loss estimation model was executed to estimate losses of paddy of each scenario with inundation depth and duration time as parameters. In the last step, Conditioned Expected Losses (CEL) for each country were calculated as risk value through loss and exceedance probability curve fitted with scenario samples. On the basis of CEL, a risk zoning map of paddy caused by flood in Huai River sub-basin was generated as a final result.
