ABSTRACT
May I offer two thoughts that I hope other scholars of intelligence will expand into theories that may explain aspects of intelligence? I presented them at the RAND Corporation conference on ‘Toward a eory of Intelligence’ in June 2005 and immodestly think they may be worthy of further dissemination and, hopefully, discussion and elaboration. (1) Surprise is a matter not of insufficient information but of
insufficient time. Often, in looking back at the data available at the time of surprise, the indications of the event appear to have been present. But the analysts did not have enough time to understand them, to see a pattern in the mass of facts. Time explains why hindsight has 20/20 vision. Surprise is not a question of breadth but of depth; its dimension is not spatial but temporal.
