ABSTRACT
Life-cycle analyses of sustainability metrics for bridges and other structures require information on natural hazard occurrence to evaluate potential damage and impending consequences throughout the structure’s lifetime, such as costs, emissions, embodied energy, or waste generation. As an example, earthquake occurrence models describe the probability of occurrence of an earthquake in a given time period, where one of the most common models adopted in seismic hazard analyses as well as life-cycle analyses is the Poisson model. Although this model is appropriate for smaller magnitude earthquakes, it is not consistent with the elastic rebound theory for large magnitude earthquakes and hence Renewal models are have been proposed to more accurately reflect the physics of the process. Despite this model being previously used in seismic hazard analyses, studies are lacking which implement Renewal models in life-cycle cost and sustainability assessment frameworks. This paper presents a framework for quantifying the lifetime sustainability of a bridge exposed to seismic hazard assuming both a Poisson model and Renewal model for earthquake occurrence. A case study application is presented for quantifying lifetime monetary cost and carbon dioxide emissions of a bridge located in Charleston, South Carolina. Results highlight the effects of adopted earthquake occurrence model and therefore the influence of accounting for historical characteristic earthquake activity when conducting life-cycle analyses of lifetime sustainability metrics.
