ABSTRACT
In this study, the authors carry out statistical deterioration prediction with visual inspection data, while focusing on concrete pipes in one sewerage treatment area. In detail, the authors employ the Markov deterioration hazard model and the cluster analysis as concrete methods to select the most influential deterioration factors and to estimate the expected deterioration path. Regarding to deterioration factors, 7 kinds of characteristic variables are considered as candidates of deterioration factors, and by using cluster analysis, candidates are classified into some clusters. Then, one candidate from each cluster is selected as characteristic variables of the model, and by comparison of t-value and AIC, the optimal model having the significant interpretability can be selected. In addition, by estimating the Markov deterioration hazard model, the expected deterioration path can be estimated. By using the result of this study, the deterioration factors and expected deterioration path of the concrete pipe can be obtained.
