ABSTRACT
ABSTRACT: The Mediterranean area is one of the most vulnerable areas to the climate change. The IPCC’s fifth report (AR5) predicts an increase in temperature and a reduction in precipitation to the Southern Europe. Results from two Global Climate Models (HadGEM2-ES and MPI-ESM-MR) and four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP: 2.6, 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5) scenarios are used to asses the increase on wildfire risk in the Upper Jucar River Basin, Spain. Two indexes are applied: the Fire Weather Index (FWI) and the KeetchByram Drought Index (KBDI). FWI is better correlated than KBDI to the number of wildfires registered during the period 1972-2012. The wildfire risk will increase: from high to very high in august (in the short-term) and July and August are always under very high risk of wildfire at the end of the century. The potential number of wildfires per season could increase from 40% (short-term) to 80-100% (long-term).
