ABSTRACT
ABSTRACT: Drought is a complex natural hazard that causes the highest economic losses in Croatia. Since damages caused by droughts are increasing, a development of a comprehensive drought monitoring should include a forecasting component in order to provide an in-time warning on drought. In this study the possibilities on drought forecasting are investigated using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) which are calculated for 1-and 3-month time scales. The forecasted SPI values are calculated from the long-range ensemble precipitation forecasts by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). They are validated by SPI values obtained from the observed monthly precipitation amounts at 23 stations, spanning the 2011-2014 period. The verification has been performed by employing Brier skill scores, as well as the reliability diagrams. The results have revealed a good skill for the one-month SPI forecast and considerably worse skill for threemonth forecast.
