The utility assessment of rainstorm early warning based on Monte-Carlo simulation: A case study of Beijing

ABSTRACT: Early warning is the signal issued by the authority that informs the public to be aware of the coming disaster and take the corresponding measure. With the history data and the random utility theory a utility assessment formulation model is established to simulate the process of rainstorm early warning of Beijing. Taking the uncertainty of disaster and public behavior into account a numerical experiment is conducted. By the comparison among the results some conclusions and suggestions are put forward.