ABSTRACT
ABSTRACT: In this paper, we developed a probability of occurrence model of landslides induced by earthquakes for the 10 counties that were worst hit by the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake, using the dynamics-based Newmark displacement method. The model will be a significant reference and will be able to provide guidance for emergency response, landslide warning and forecast, and relief and reconstruction work in the aftermath of future earthquakes. First, based on engineering geology groups, relevant empirical parameters, and a slope map of the counties worst hit by the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake, the static safety factor of the shallow saturated slopes and critical accelerations were derived using space analysis in ArcGIS. Second, we collected the peak ground accelerations from the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake from 32 stations in the worst hit counties. Then, we interpolated the peak ground NS and EW accelerations using the Spline interpolation method in ArcGIS and calculated the average peak ground accelerations. The distributions of the Newmark displacements in the study area were described based on the average peak ground accelerations and critical accelerations. Finally, we developed an earthquake-induced landslide probability of occurrence model by combining the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake landslide data with the Newmark displacements.
