ABSTRACT
In this paper we examine agriculture in the BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa). These are developing or newly industrialised countries with large, rapidly growing economies and/or a signifi cant infl uence on regional or global international affairs. We examine the scenarios for climate change in these regions and use the WaterWorld Policy Support System (v. 2.90, which is a sophisticated hydrological model, see Mulligan, 2012) to examine the likely impacts of an IPCC SRES climate scenario A2a on agricultural water use in major agricultural areas of these countries, for an ensemble of 17 General Circulation Models (GCMs). We discuss the context for agriculture in these countries and the likely trajectories for agricultural development. We then examine the BRICS export markets by volume and destination and highlight the virtual water trades associated with agriculture. We discuss the key characteristics of climate change scenarios for these regions. The BRICS show very
different patterns and directions of agricultural water resource impact as a result of climate change but there is also huge uncertainty in the climate futures projected for these regions and this will make climate-smart agriculture very diffi cult to manage. These changes will have effects nationally but also along the very complex global supply chains associated with these BRICS economies. Finally, we examine other threats to agriculture in the BRICS and place these within the context of climate change and conclude that climate uncertainty is a key challenge for agricultural water resources management under climate change in the BRICS.
