ABSTRACT
ABSTRACT: This paper outlines the general theory of hierarchical linear model, and based on the model, gives the empirical analysis about the changes of the provincial partitioned water consumption in the Yangtze River and Southwest Rivers from 1998 to 2012. We use the Ward clustering method to partition the water consumption into groups and determine the quantity of population and effective area of cultivated land, these as two variables with the value of the correlation coefficient. The test results show that the majority of water consumption grouped by basins and provinces presents significant linear increase, but the rate of growth is different. According to the established model, we have made an out-ofsample prediction of the partitioned water consumption in 2016. This study and the results will play a reference role in the recent planning to the development and utilization of the water resources in the Yangtze River and Southwest River Area.
