ABSTRACT
Seasonal climate forecasting capabilities continue to advance, attributable predominantly to enhanced observations, computing power, better physical understanding of the climate system, and experience (Barnston et al., 1994, 2005; Goddard et al., 2003). Their principle goal is to reduce climate-related risks, providing advance information to potentially improve decision-making and increase societal benefits, especially over the long term. Currently, however, there exists little evidence of direct forecast use in operations, especially in water resources management, even in regions of scarcity. This is often ascribed to water managers tendency to act in a risk averse manner, “poor” forecast skill or scale, difficulty in integrating
forecasts into existing decision support systems, lack of focus on specific user needs, anticipated shifts in the water sector, management and political disincentives, individual and institutional inflexibility, behavioral effects, and informational constraints (Pulwarty and Redmond, 1997; Hamlet et al., 2002; Ritchie et al., 2004; Rayner et al., 2005; Broad et al., 2007; Johnston et al., 2007; Lemos, 2008; Millner, 2009; Ziervogel et al., 2010).
