ABSTRACT
Climatic variability is a significant factor influencing agricultural production decisions. Historically in Australia, farmers and governments have invested heavily in reducing the influence of this variability on agricultural production. The temperate Australia is more vulnerable than other countries to river flow-related droughts and floods. In such a challenging environment, forecasting tools that support improved decision-making resulting in efficiencies in water use and reduced risk-taking are highly desirable. The strong relationships that exist between climate, streamflow, and El Niño southern oscillation (ENSO) form the scientific basis for forecast tools developed throughout Australia and other parts of the world. This chapter describes the coupling of forecast models to models that simulate a range of water management behaviors within a constrained problem definition. To consider the potential benefits to agricultural production of seasonal forecasts, the chapter investigates their potential impact on farm-level decisions and returns in an irrigated cropping system.
