ABSTRACT
The Nene Washes are the UK’s most important site for breeding black-tailed godwits (Limosa limosa). Climate change has led to concerns about their viability, which depends on the hydrological regime at the Washes. They can be impacted by flooding or water shortage during the breeding season, as well as overpopulation of predators if not driven away from the area during winter floods. As part of Project Godwit, an EU-LIFE funded conservation project, UKCP18 spatially coherent projections for rainfall, potential evapotranspiration, and sea level for the RCP8.5 emissions scenario were coupled with detailed hydrological modelling as worst case. Results suggest a moderate increase in the frequency of full flooding in winter and spring by 2080, which would also be associated with a higher frequency of partial flooding at the onset of the nesting season. Drought conditions during summer and autumn would increase significantly and pose a threat to the species’ future.
