ABSTRACT
Planning a project is a key and perhaps necessary stage in forecasting project completion. Planning for a task involves the predetermination of a course of action that will result in successful task completion (Mumford, Schultz, & Osburn, 2002), and prediction represents an attempt to foresee what is likely to transpire (Dunning, 2007). In the realm of project management and scheduling, planning and scheduling a timeline of activities is closely intertwined with making time completion predictions. Of course, events don’t always unfold as planned, and thus forecasters concerned with accuracy might be wise to make predictions that diverge from plans. In this chapter, we examine the psychology of time predictions relevant to project planning and management. We focus on a phenomenon known as the “planning fallacy,” where processes of planning and prediction are too closely aligned, resulting in unrealistically optimistic forecasts. We begin by defining and documenting the planning fallacy and identifying its underlying psychological mechanisms. We then examine empirical tests of strategies proposed to curb the planning fallacy.
