ABSTRACT
Interpretations of China’s rise often neglect the extraordinary constraints that Chinese society will face this century. These can be described as a ‘demographic–resource–environmental’ chain to indicate the way in which a large but imbalanced demographic structure, a low per capita resource endowment, and a precarious ecological position will interact to limit the options of both the Chinese state and civil society. Under conditions of modernization, China’s demographic inheritance will act as a locomotive that pulls behind it four challenges of human security: water, food, energy and climate change. If not met by effective responses of governance, these will produce a fifth source of risk: migrations resulting in large internally, and potentially externally, displaced populations. Given China’s size and centrality to Asia, there will be no way to stop these internal dynamics from merging with their international equivalents so that transnational human security challenges will converge with problems of international governance. For all the effort presently being spent on assessing China’s conventional security role and its implications, China’s transnational relations of human security will play at least as significant a part in shaping the Asian century. 1 In particular, transnational vulnerabilities may trigger ‘human security dilemmas’ in China’s neighbourhoods, with the potential for a dangerous negative synergy between ‘beggar-thy-neighbour’ modernization strategies and more conventional security dilemmas around disputed territories, diplomatic rivalries and arms racing.
