ABSTRACT
Tourist arrivals have been a growing trended series over a long period of time with occasional shocks to arrivals first noticed with the Gulf Oil crisis of 1973. However, more recently these shocks have both widened in their variety of causes and increased in their frequency. This increasing diversity and frequency has drawn significant notice by several authors including Ennew (2003) and Wilks and Moore (2004) on tourism shocks and their impacts in general; Prideaux (1999), UNWTO (1998), Bromby (1999) and Roubini (1999) on the Asian financial crisis; Blake et al. (2001) and Scottish Government (2003) on the impact of foot and mouth disease on tourism in the UK; Blake and Sinclair (2002), ILO (2001) and Brewbaker (2002) on the impact of the 9/11 (11 September 2001) events; Aly and Strazicich (2000) and Pizam and Smith (2000) on terrorism impacts; Travel and Tourism in Hong Kong (Hong Kong Tourism Board, 2004), ATEC (2003) and Canada Tourism (2003) on SARS. Some of the literature tends to focus more upon the recovery process and whether there is a new trend to growth after the shock.
