ABSTRACT
More than 50 years ago, in an act of intellectual boldness A.F.K. Organski told his colleagues in world politics that the prevailing concept of balance of power was wrong not only at the margins but also at its core. The world is not in anarchy where the strong prevail and where only a balance of power preserves the peace. Instead, he argued, peace is preserved by a preponderance of power, orchestrated for stability, and that danger lurks when power is in balance and the leading nation is overtaken by a dissatisfied challenger. This power transition argument challenged the prevailing wisdom of the day and has withstood the test of time. There is now common agreement that the probability of severe war rises when power is roughly equal and particularly when a new nation on the global scene bears grievances against the international system. That is the situation we face today.
