ABSTRACT
When it is impossible to incorporate all the complex components involved, and it is therefore hopeless to represent behavior in accurate quantitative terms, it may still be possible to derive a compelling qualitative explanation of behavior. This possibility is illustrated in this chapter with the problem of explaining macroeconomic evolution. The resulting nonlinear, multiple-phase model exhibits trajectories that are qualitatively like those in the historical and archaeological records. Implications for understanding current transitions in the global economy and for development policy are suggested.
